Elon Musk announced today that Tesla plans to double its electric vehicle production in the US over the next two years.
What does that mean in numbers? Let’s break it down.
During a press conference at the White House, Musk stated:
As a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.
Musk’s wording suggests that Tesla may be expanding its production plans in response to government policies. However, the actual strategy behind this ambitious goal remains unclear.
Tesla’s Current Production Capacity in the U.S.
Tesla’s installed production capacity in the U.S. is over 1 million vehicles per year, but actual production rates are significantly lower.
Here’s a breakdown of Tesla’s installed vs. actual production capacity in the U.S. as of 2024:
| Region | Model | Capacity | Status |
| California | Model S / Model x | 100,000 | Production |
| Model 3 / Model Y | >550,000 | Production | |
| Shanghai | Model 3 / Model Y | >950,000 | Production |
| Berlin | Model Y | >375,000 | Production |
| Texas | Model Y | >250,000 | Production |
| Cybertruck | >125,000 | Production | |
| Cybercab | — | In development | |
| Nevada | Tesla Semi | — | Pilot production |
| TBD | Roadster | — | In development |
Total U.S. Production: ~700,000 vehicles per year (compared to a 1,025,000 installed capacity).
The biggest discrepancies are in Model S/X production, which is operating at less than 50% of its installed capacity, and Cybertruck production, which is still ramping up. Meanwhile, Model 3/Y production remains strong but is still below full capacity.
Tesla is working on increasing production, with new affordable models and the Cybercab expected to contribute significantly in the next two years.
Tesla’s New Production Capacity
Elon Musk recently stated that Tesla plans to double its U.S. production output within the next two years. Given the timeline, he is likely referring to actual vehicle production rather than installed capacity.
Currently, Tesla manufactures around 700,000 vehicles annually in the U.S. Doubling that would bring production to 1.4 million units per year—an ambitious but not entirely new goal for the company.
Several factors contribute to this planned expansion:
- New Affordable Models: Tesla has confirmed plans to unveil two lower-cost EVs this year. These models will be built alongside the Model 3 and Model Y, potentially allowing Tesla to maximize existing production capacity. This alone could add approximately 200,000 units annually.
- Tesla Semi Production: The new Semi production facility in Nevada is set to begin manufacturing later this year, ramping up in 2025. Tesla has previously targeted an annual output of 50,000 units.
- Cybercab Expansion: Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab, which will use the next-generation vehicle platform, is expected to begin production in 2026 at Gigafactory Texas. Musk has previously mentioned a potential production capacity of at least 2 million units per year, but that figure likely accounts for multiple factories. For Tesla to reach 1.4 million vehicles annually in the U.S., Cybercab production would need to ramp up to at least 450,000 units.
It’s important to note that these expansion plans were already in motion before the U.S. elections or any potential policy shifts under a new administration.
